Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 161200Z – 171200Z


Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of southern
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the far western Florida

…Central Gulf Coast…

Mid-level heights will be suppressed a bit along the central Gulf
Coast ahead of a weak short-wave trough later today. This feature
will progress into the lower MS Valley by 18z, then off the FL
Atlantic Coast during the overnight hours. In response, warm
advection processes appear to be strengthening across southern LA at
05z and showers are expected to gradually deepen such that lightning
could be noted across this region by sunrise Sunday. Deep westerly
component is expected to prevent substantial moistening inland and
buoyancy necessary for thunderstorms should remain confined to
near-coastal areas. Forecast soundings suggest any thunderstorms
that develop across this region will remain elevated and too weak to
warrant any meaningful threat for hail or damaging winds.

..Darrow/Elliott.. 02/16/2020


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