Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Southwest Nebraska and far northeast Colorado

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 081841Z – 082015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
afternoon. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION…A few thunderstorms have started to form in southwest
Nebraska and northeast Colorado early this afternoon in a region
with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s
to low 70s. MLCAPE in this region is around 1500 to 2000 J/kg with
effective shear around 40 knots per RAP mesoanalysis. While the
parameter space is conducive for large hail and damaging winds,
storm coverage and duration is expected to be limited due to rising
heights and warming temperatures aloft. Therefore, a couple of
strong to severe storms are possible in this region, but a severe
thunderstorm watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage
and duration.

..Bentley/Goss.. 08/08/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 41840213 42120155 41970047 41439937 40439881 39939902
39920033 39980195 40490276 41040305 41640302 41840213

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.