Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…south-central Nebraska and far northern Kansas

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 191901Z – 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Convection is intensifying near a frontal boundary across
the region. Large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are the
primary threat. A WW is not anticipated, however, given the
isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION…Cooling aloft associated with an advancing vort max
across east-west-central Kansas and sustained surface heating was
contributing to deepening, lightning-producing convection near a
surface boundary extending from near GLD to HSI. These storms are
in an environment characterized by modest instability (250-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) and appreciable deep shear (35-40 kts), with storm motion
vectors largely perpendicular to the initiating surface bounday.
This should result in a tendency for most convection to be undercut,
though 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates may support isolated instances
of large hail in the strongest cells. Any threat for surface wind
gusts or updraft rotation may occur if storms interact favorably
with the initiating boundary, though this potential appears to be
quite low at this time. These storms should continue to spread
north-northeast with time, with the already limited severe risk
persisting through the next few hours.

Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not
anticipated.

..Cook/Dial.. 03/19/2020

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…OAX…TOP…GID…LBF…GLD…

LAT…LON 40789851 40799842 40839762 40629734 40359739 40089763
40029768 39669925 39120137 39150183 39340208 39700200
39980145 40030107 40110093 40489969 40789851

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