Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Portions of southeast Colorado

Concerning…Heavy snow

Valid 240156Z – 240800Z

SUMMARY…Heavy snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain
of the rockies. Some heavier rates may occur across southern
portions of the Colorado Front Range, mainly across the Palmer
Divide and the higher terrain of Las Animas and Huerfano Counties,
with a few instances of 1 inch/hr snowfall rates possible. Heaviest
snowfall rates will most likely be observed in the 04-08Z time

DISCUSSION…A cold front, currently located across far southeast
Colorado, will continue to surge south throughout the evening in
conjunction with a positively tilted mid-level shortwave trough.
While temperatures are at or above freezing across much of southeast
Colorado in the low-levels, sfc-700 mb layer cold air advection (per
00Z Mesoanalysis) will promote temperatures cooling to at/below
freezing, with saturation also occurring throughout the column. This
cooling/saturating of the lower troposphere will support the
development of a deep (up to 1km) dendritic growth layer,
accompanied by strong lifting (925-700 mb frontogenesis) associated
with an eastward, upslope component of low-level flow.

While much of the heavy snow will be confined to the higher terrain
of the Rocky Mountains, up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates appear
possible across southern parts of the Colorado Front Range. The most
likely places to experience 1 inch/hr rates will be along the
northern slopes of the Palmer Divide and higher terrain of Las
Animas/Huerfano Counties, where orographic lift may locally enhance
low-level ascent. The best time for 1 inch/hr rates will be
between 04-08Z (as supported by both 12Z HREF and several of the
latest HRRR runs), when an easterly component of low-level flow will
be most dominant.

..Squitieri/Darrow.. 10/24/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 37010352 37040413 37350464 37590491 37990497 38270512
38480505 38670491 39330490 39460419 39140326 38460308
37540278 37110275 37010352

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