Areas affected…Northern NM
Concerning…Heavy rainfall…Flash flooding possible
Valid 062245Z – 070145Z
Summary…Expect slow moving thunderstorms across northern NM
through the next couple of hours. The potential for flash
flooding will continue, especially as heavy precipitation
approaches Albuquerque.
Discussion…An upper ridge across the western CONUS will
continues to feed mid-level impulses across the Four Corners
region. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored across
southern CO. Meanwhile, precipitable water above 1 inches
combined with instability of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE has led to
the development of showers and thunderstorms across much of
northern NM this afternoon. Much of this activity initiated along
the upslope regions of the terrain with strong differential
heating.
Most of the hi-res model guidance had illustrated the convection
would move off the terrain and diminish quickly. However, given
the mean flow, instability and upper level support, thunderstorms
continue to develop with a large cluster coming off the San Juan
Mountains moving toward Albuquerque. Hourly rain rates associated
with this convection has been on the order of 1-1.5 inches.
While the overall spread of convection should dwindle with time
due to loss of forcing/heating, thunderstorms moving south are
encountering higher precipitable water values aided by 850mb
southerly flow and better instability. Flash flood guidance
across this area is generally 1 to 2 inches within an hour. Thus
feel there is the potential for flash flooding across portions of
this region through the next couple of hours, especially within
the urban coordinator of Albuquerque.
Pagano
…Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ABQ…GJT…PUB…
ATTN…RFC…ABRFC…CBRFC…WGRFC…
LAT…LON 37610687 37240520 36980403 36310352 35380334
34200451 34320566 34410767 34810883 35940832
37530889