Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…southeast CO…southwest KS…portions of eastern
NM into the OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 112034Z – 112230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…A few strong storms are possible through early evening.
Isolated strong wind gusts will be the main concern, though the
sparse nature of the threat should preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION…Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in
convergent low level flow along a surface trough/dryline extending
southward from a low near the Palmer Divide into eastern NM. Strong
heating and moderate moisture (surface dew points low/mid 60s F) has
resulted in a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and modest effective
shear, supporting a few strong cells. This is especially the case
from far northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle northward into
southeast CO/southwest KS, where effective shear near 30 kt and
midlevel lapse rates approaching 7-7.5 C/km will foster better
organized updrafts. While this could result in some small hail,
sporadic strong downburst winds are more likely given very steep low
level lapse rates and inverted-v type low level thermodynamic
profiles. While a couple of storms could briefly reach severe
criteria, the overall threat is expected to be sparse and
short-lived with any given cell.

..Leitman/Hart.. 09/11/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 34080250 33810328 33770422 33780467 33920477 34350487
36110411 37430360 38800292 39190253 39400193 39490116
39250083 38890083 37250103 36040134 34880178 34230233

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