Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Southwest Kansas…Southeast Colorado…northwest
Texas Panhandle…western Oklahoma Panhandle…northeast New Mexico

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 101938Z – 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…A few isolated storms capable of strong/severe wind gusts
are possible this afternoon. This diurnally-driven activity should
cease after sunset. A WW is not likely.

DISCUSSION…Cumulus have been deepening within the lee trough into
southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico over the past hour.
Isolated storms have already developed with a few more storms
possible within the next couple hours. With stronger flow/shear
displaced to the northwest, storms will struggle to organize and
propagate very far eastward into greater buoyancy. However, strong
surface heating has steepened low-level lapse rates significantly
which will allow a few strong/severe wind gusts to accompany this
activity. With weak upper-level support, this disorganized activity
will likely cease after sunset. A WW is not likely.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/10/2019

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…DDC…GLD…AMA…PUB…ABQ…

LAT…LON 36470371 38820207 38970169 38920116 38410076 37360091
36380167 35150271 34820358 35190416 35520435 36470371

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