Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Portions of northern Great Basin…western
Wyoming…far northwest Colorado

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 101814Z – 102015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated large hail and strong/severe wind gusts possible
this afternoon. A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…Strong forcing for ascent is evident on water vapor
imagery as a mid-level jet streak rounds the base of trough across
the Pacific Northwest. Storms have begun to develop along the higher
terrain southwest of SLC into northeast NV and southeast ID. MLCIN
still exists away from the higher terrain, but continued heating
should result in a gradual increase in storm coverage/intensity
downstream. Current objective mesoanalysis shows very meager MLCAPE
of 250-500 J/kg. While no marked increase in buoyancy is expected,
cloud free areas may see 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.
With 35-45 kts of effective deep-layer shear, long hodographs, and
steep mid-level lapse rates (8 C/km observed on 12Z SLC/RIW/BOI
soundings), large hail will be possible with the stronger storms.
Isolated strong/severe wind gusts will be possible with fairly deep
boundary layers and strong flow aloft. A WW is not anticipated this
afternoon as limited buoyancy will likely temper the overall severe

..Wendt.. 09/10/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 41961618 42551556 43441358 44021226 43340974 42330892
41110828 39910839 39480866 39141039 40331162 41051230
41531312 41261447 41131541 41501618 41761620 41961618

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