Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Parts of western Kansas into south central Nebraska

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 092239Z – 100045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Widely scattered strong storms may pose at least some risk
for severe hail and localized strong surface gusts into the 7-9 PM
CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION…Scattered discrete thunderstorms have recently
developed and intensified across western Kansas. This may be
largely driven by locally enhanced convergence near the lee surface
trough, as convective temperatures were approached or reached, and
may continue to develop northeastward into south central Nebraska
through early evening.

Convection is occurring in the wake of stronger mid-level height
falls associated with one significant short wave trough progressing
northeastward through the Dakotas, and stronger lower/mid
tropospheric wind fields are shifting off to the north and east of
the region. However, storms still appear embedded within modestly
sheared, 20-30 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow, which
may contribute to occasional isolated supercell structures.
Mixed-layer CAPE appears on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg, which will
remain potentially supportive of vigorous updrafts at least until
the onset of boundary layer cooling results in increasing inhibition
by 01-02Z.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 09/09/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38860127 41249871 41079822 40569851 39399956 37980096
37440208 37710248 38860127

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