Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Much of eastern Colorado

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 082040Z – 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Strong thunderstorms are expected to develop across much
of eastern Colorado later this afternoon. Severe wind gusts and hail
are expected with the more organized convection.

DISCUSSION…Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
spreading across the central Rockies early this afternoon. Latest
satellite imagery depicts this well with an arcing band of deep
convection extending from southwest WY – northwest CO – into the San
Juan Mountains. Over the last few hours, low clouds have gradually
thinned over lower elevations of northeast CO but a notable surface
boundary remains draped along the I-70 corridor which is maintaining
easterly low-level flow. Strongly-forcing band of convection has
already generated locally severe wind gusts over the higher terrain
and this activity is expected to grow upscale as it encounters more
buoyant air mass downstream. Latest diagnostic data suggest surface
parcels remain capped east of the Front Range, but continued heating
should ease inhibition over the next few hours. Maturing organized
thunderstorms with wind/hail should progress across much of eastern
CO late this afternoon/evening.

..Darrow/Hart.. 09/08/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 37870365 38860505 39940538 40820517 40900374 40100285
39540209 38080219 37870365

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