Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…the I-25 corridor and vicinity

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 302013Z – 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Storms are developing over the Front Range and eastern
slopes of the southern Rockies into northern New Mexico. These
storms will likely slowly move to the east in the next few hours
with severe hail and wind possible.

DISCUSSION…Multiple embedded disturbances are evident in
west/northwest flow aloft over the central/northern Rockies and
vicinity via water vapor imagery. A surface front that was pushed up
to the eastern slopes of the Rockies will continue to slowly retreat
with the passage of upper-level disturbances aloft and insolation
continuing across the High Plains. Upslope, east/southeast flow will
continue and with the aforementioned insolation, terrain
circulations will become deep enough to establish surface-based
convection. Storms may initially be elevated, but should become
surface-based this afternoon/evening.

Current MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis, but this will
increase as insolation and moist advection via east/southeast
low-level flow continue and likely reach 1000-1500 J/kg by late
afternoon/early evening. Effective bulk shear will also increase as
mid-level flow strengthens with forecast guidance indicating 25-40
knots. As a result, severe hail and wind will be possible with
isolated to scattered storms developing along the I-25 corridor. A
watch issuance is unlikely at this time, but convective trends will
be monitored.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/30/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 35520520 36070512 37080504 39780529 40840547 41270554
41480542 41500457 41040378 39750338 37910346 36610363
35930386 35510412 35320436 35160465 35130501 35320513

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