Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…southeast Colorado…northeast New Mexico and into
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 242201Z – 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated storms developing over the far southeast Colorado
vicinity may pose a local hail wind risk, with some upscale growth
possible with time as the convection spreads southeastward toward
lower elevations. A WW could become necessary.

DISCUSSION…Latest visible and radar loops over the
central/southern high Plains show isolated storms developing over
far southeast Colorado at this time, within an environment featuring
moderate instability and an amply veering/sheared profile with

One of the cells, over southeast Baca County Colorado, appears to
have acquired rotation per radar reflectivity/SRM data, consistent
with the background environment. With time, expect the developing
storms spread southeastward across southeast Colorado and southwest
Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, possibly
expanding/growing upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS.
With initial cells somewhat high-based, and surface dewpoint
depressions in excess of 20F in most areas, tornado risk should
remain limited. Large hail will be a greater risk with the initial
supercell mode, with wind becoming an increasing possibility with
time if storms can indeed achieve at least loose linear/bowing
organization. We will continue to monitor degree of convective
coverage that evolves, with an eye toward possible WW issuance.

..Goss/Guyer.. 08/24/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38080286 37760234 37260159 37000050 36129972 35180021
35140208 36480368 37320304 38080286

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