Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Eastern Colorado…far western Kansas…Portions of
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles…far northeast New Mexico.

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613…

Valid 232228Z – 240030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613

SUMMARY…The severe weather threat continues for WW 613. Severe
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from two storm
clusters in eastern Colorado and portions of the TX/OK Panhandles.
Some possibility for a tornado exists with storms interacting with
an outflow boundary in western Kansas.

DISCUSSION…Current radar mosaic shows two primary clusters of
storms within WW 613. One cluster east of Denver has had a history
of relatively discrete storms producing large hail, with one report
of 1.75 inches. Storms in the southern portions of the Watch have
congealed into more of a linear structure in the Panhandles. Deep
boundary layer mixing has led to dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F
across most of eastern Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles. Combined
with modest low-level shear, the expectation is for these two
clusters to continue to grow upscale this evening and propagate

Visible satellite imagery has shown agitated cumulus increasing
along an outflow boundary from near Dodge City, KS into northeastern
Colorado. Near this boundary, both deep-layer (around 40 kts
effective) shear and low-level shear will be maximized. The KDDC VWP
shows around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Storms that can form
along/interact with this boundary will have some potential to
produce a tornado before likely moving into more stable air across
the boundary.

..Wendt.. 08/23/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 35930323 38620402 39890458 40580427 40900324 40260186
38900143 37840095 36420094 36010143 35840240 35820296

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