Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…portions of northeast Colorado…southeast Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 222011Z – 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are anticipated this
afternoon, with a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts. A
watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION…Regional radar and satellite imagery reveals an
increase in showers/thunderstorms from the Denver Metro north into
southeast WY, aided by moist southeasterly low-level flow and strong
diurnal heating. Although mid-level flow is generally at or below
25 kts, the strength of the low-level flow is contributing to 25-35
kts of effective shear, and this should prove sufficient for some
updraft organization as storms move east of the higher terrain
through this evening. In the presence of moderate MLCAPE and steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates, isolated stronger storms will be
capable of severe hail and strong wind gusts. As storms merge into
a small cluster this evening, some risk for strong winds may
continue to exist within a more localized area.

Convective trends will continue to be monitored, however a watch is
not currently anticipated.

..Bunting/Guyer.. 08/22/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 39330315 39230457 39620509 40420542 40940543 41390521
41680502 41870467 41960394 41710326 40830262 39900247

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