Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…central Colorado through southeast Wyoming

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611…

Valid 212239Z – 220015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 611

SUMMARY…A few instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts
remain possible from central CO through southeast WY through 00Z,
but overall threat is expected to become increasingly marginal with
onset of nocturnal cooling.

DISCUSSION…Isolated storms continue over the higher terrain, but
coverage has remained sparse across most of CO into southeast WY.
With upper ridging aloft, the primary forcing mechanism has been
heating and upslope component over the higher terrain. While the
downstream atmosphere is moderately unstable with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
westerly winds aloft remain modest with generally 15-20 kt in the
700-400 mb layer. Limited storm coverage with low confidence that
storms will be able to consolidate, along with weak flow aloft and
increasing convective inhibition, all lower confidence that activity
will be able to move off the higher terrain. Nevertheless, what
storms that do develop will remain capable of producing a few
instances of hail and locally strong wind gusts next couple hours.

..Dial.. 08/21/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 42140512 40220442 38200424 38080505 40140558 42080591

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