Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Portions of far southeastern WY…far northeastern
CO…and western/central NE

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607…

Valid 210434Z – 210530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 607

SUMMARY…An isolated hail/wind threat continues across far
southeastern WY into the western NE Panhandle. The need for a
downstream watch into more of western NE remains unclear.

DISCUSSION…Storms across far southeastern WY have recently
strengthened and consolidated into a small cluster, which is
entering the far western NE Panhandle at 0430Z. In the absence of an
obvious large-scale forcing mechanism, this uptick in convective
coverage and intensity may be related to a modest strengthening of
southerly winds in the 2-3 km layer noted on recent VWPs from KCYS.
Regardless, this convection will soon encounter a more buoyant
airmass in western NE, where surface dewpoints gradually increase
from the low 60s to the low 70s with eastward extent. Some
short-term guidance suggests that this ongoing cluster will maintain
its intensity, and perhaps even strengthen as it moves eastward
overnight across western and eventually central NE. Isolated severe
winds and large hail remain the primary concerns. At this point, the
need for a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW 607
remains unclear. But, trends will be closely monitored.

..Gleason.. 08/21/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 41580479 42110417 42570329 42520070 41570021 40600039
40550241 40600376 41020474 41580479

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