Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…portions of the central and southern High Plains

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 192137Z – 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…Storms are developing across portions of the central and
southern High Plains with isolated severe wind possible. A watch
issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION…A weak mid-level shortwave trough rotating around the
upper high over the central/southern High Plains is evident in water
vapor imagery. A slight steepening in mid-level lapse rates along
with a surface pressure trough and strong insolation has helped
initiate thunderstorms stretching from far western Kansas into the
Texas Panhandle. A sharp instability gradient exists across the High
Plains with MLCAPE increasing from 500 J/kg in far eastern Colorado
to 2000-3000 J/kg in western Kansas and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.
Additionally, a modest increase of 700-400 mb flow in
northwest/western Kansas has increased effective bulk shear to 30-35

A mixed storm mode of discrete, weaker supercells to multicellular
clusters is expected into the evening. Given higher LCLs and steep
low-level lapse rates, damaging winds gusts are the main severe
threat, although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out even
with the warmer temperatures through the profile. Convection could
continue past sunset as the low-level jet does increase with some
upscale organization possible. However, the overall severe threat
should remain marginal and isolated.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/19/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 34900223 35540256 37320244 39700271 40310235 40560146
40410028 39819993 37969985 37459982 36799982 36139990
35749996 35340013 35060041 34830104 34900223

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