Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…northwest Kansas and vicinity

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592…

Valid 180210Z – 180415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592

SUMMARY…The strongest storm has moved out of WW592 into WW594.
Elevated storms have redeveloped across Kit Carson, Sherman, and
Thomas counties and may pose a low-end severe threat in the next
hour or two.

DISCUSSION…Temperatures and dewpoints dropped across northeast
Colorado and northwest Kansas as storms passed through the area
earlier this evening with low-level stable conditions present.
However, some forcing for ascent aloft has helped elevated storms
redevelop across far eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas along the
I-70 corridor. MUCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and marginal effective bulk
shear could result in isolated, low-end severe hail and possibly
damaging wind if it can penetrate the low-level stable layer. GLD
VAD shows north-northeast winds at low-levels indicating limited
warm air advection/isentropic lift associated with the low-level jet
that is beginning to strengthen across the southern/central Plains.
Overall, the potential for severe hail/wind is limited across WW592
before it expires at 04z, but a strong storm or two is possible.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38730042 38720145 38690197 38950213 39260217 39530150
39520015 39469977 39199963 39019994 38730042

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