Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…northeast Colorado…southwest Nebraska…northwest

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592…

Valid 172328Z – 180130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592

SUMMARY…The severe risk continues across WW592 with storms
possibly move out of the watch in the next couple of hours. Severe
hail and wind are the main threats.

DISCUSSION…Storms have developed in northeast Colorado and
northwest Kansas near a surface pressure trough and just north of a
surface low located in east-central Colorado with severe hail/wind
reported in GLD CWA. A hot, moist airmass is just east of the
surface pressure trough resulting in 2000-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
However, CIN remains across much of Kansas and into eastern Colorado
and southwest Nebraska, which may limit eastward storm
development/propagation, at least initially. Although the presence
of mature supercells may reduce the impact of the CIN, and KGLD
radar does show outflow surging ahead of the convection, which may
help trigger new convection.

Given the inhibition and effective bulk shear of 35-40 knots,
supercellular storm mode will continue to be likely. As the
low-level jet strengthens tonight, storms are likely to grow upscale
across northwest Kansas and vicinity and move eastward. Recent HRRR
solutions suggest the initial northwest Kansas convection may
dissipate, but the storms currently in northeast Colorado may move
into northwest Kansas and grow upscale with the strengthening
low-level jet. A local watch extension will likely be needed and new
watch may be necessary depending on how the next couple of hours
plays out.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/17/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38509961 38300066 38260204 38590314 39930330 40240299
40250154 40200046 39999962 39719904 39149897 38849913

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.