Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…eastern Colorado

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582…

Valid 150231Z – 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582

SUMMARY…Severe thunderstorm watch will be allowed to expire at
03Z. Only one severe storm remains in the southeast part of the WW.
This storm will continue to pose a threat for large hail and
downburst winds as it moves into Kiowa and possibly Prowers County
before diminishing. Another downstream WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION…A lone supercell continues through east central CO.
RAOB and PFC data show very warm air with 13-14C around 700 mb near
or just above the base of an elevated mixed layer. It therefore
appears convective inhibition will continue to increase
substantially as surface temperatures fall through the 70s. While
the pressure perturbations within the supercell will help to sustain
the storm for a while longer, the increasingly hostile thermodynamic
environment should result in a gradual weakening trend by 04Z.

..Dial.. 08/15/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38380288 39050273 39150215 37890212 37850268 38380288

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