Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…central and southwest KS…far east-central CO

Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 132222Z – 132345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent

SUMMARY…Storms will probably develop south-southeastward into
west-central and southwest KS this evening. Severe gusts (60-75mph)
and isolated large hail are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a couple of intense storm clusters
near the Burlington, CO/Goodland KS vicinity and another farther
northeast in between Colby, KS and McCook, NE. A considerable
amount of outflow associated with the storms is becoming more
spatially extensive with time. Surface analysis indicates
temperatures in the upper 80s with middle 60s degrees F dewpoints
south of the ongoing storms.

Recent storm-scale model guidance suggests a continuation of storms
through the evening as this activity moves to the south-southeast.
The eastern periphery of steeper 700-500mb lapse rates (7.5 degrees
C/km) is located over western KS with 8-9 degree C/km 0-3km lapse
rates. Despite some slow cooling early this evening, mature cold
pools and regenerative development will probably lead to storms
moving towards the Garden City/Dodge City vicinity later this
evening. The hail risk may focus over west-central KS before
additional linear upscale growth favors mostly a risk for severe

..Smith/Edwards.. 08/13/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38620270 39129909 38469849 37539902 37109983 37110131

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