Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…Portions of east-central CO…northwestern KS…and
southwestern NE

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely

Valid 112020Z – 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…95 percent

SUMMARY…Severe threat will likely increase this afternoon. A
couple tornadoes, large hail, and scattered damaging winds will all
be possible. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION…Strong heating has occurred this afternoon on both
sides of a surface boundary evident on visible satellite extending
from northeastern CO into northwestern KS. Low-level convergence
along this boundary should encourage additional storm development
across this region over the next couple of hours. This process may
already be starting in Washington County in northeastern CO based on
latest radar and satellite trends. Although low-level flow is not
very strong across western KS at the moment per KGLD VWP,
southeasterly low-level winds are forecast to increase later this
afternoon into the evening as a low-level jet strengthens. MLCAPE
ranges from 2000-3000 J/kg per 20Z mesoanalysis estimates, with
around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Supercells may initially
pose a large hail threat, and isolated tornadoes could occur mainly
along and immediately to the north of the surface boundary where
effective SRH will be relatively greater. A bowing complex capable
of producing a swath of damaging winds appears increasingly possible
later this evening as storms likely grow upscale into north-central
KS and south-central NE in tandem with the strengthening low-level

..Gleason/Grams.. 08/11/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 39220281 40030273 40320253 40420203 40970195 41010110
40980022 40440001 40059993 39350001 39100020 38790061
38790223 39220281

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