Colorado Mesoscale Discussion

Areas affected…western and into southern South Dakota…far
northeast Colorado…and northern Kansas

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 102332Z – 110130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent

SUMMARY…Isolated/intense thunderstorms continue across portions of
western Nebraska and adjacent northeast Colorado. Locally damaging
winds and hail remain possible with these storms, with some
potential that risk expands eastward this evening.

DISCUSSION…Latest objective analyses indicate a very
moist/unstable airmass in place from the Nebraska Panhandle into
southern Nebraska/northern Kansas, with a handful of strong/severe
storms ongoing — particularly in the southwest Nebraska/northeast
Colorado vicinity.

While low- to mid-level flow remains quite weak, stronger westerly
winds are indicated above h5 — through middle portions of the
unstable/cloud-bearing layer. Risk for locally damaging winds and
hail continues with the ongoing cells, but greater risk could evolve
if storms can grow upscale and begin shifting eastward. This
evolution seems at least possible, given the westerly flow aloft,
the current/apparent congealing of convection over the southwest
Nebraska vicinity, and the expected development of a southerly
low-level jet over the next few hours. Some CAM output suggests
this evolution as well, and given the amount of available CAPE, this
could result in sufficient expansion of severe risk to warrant WW
consideration. We will continue to monitor convective evolution
across this area, for signs of an increase, and eastward advance, of
the ongoing storms.

..Goss/Hart.. 08/10/2019

…Please see for graphic product…


LAT…LON 38999912 39680288 40800310 42580402 42860395 42760173
42120081 41109756 39609779 38999912

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