Valid 311630Z – 011200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT…
…SUMMARY…
A few severe storms may occur across parts of south Florida and the
Florida Keys tonight, with isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps
a tornado.
…South FL…
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Morning water
vapor loop shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving into the
western Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms have developed
ahead of this feature along a surface boundary that extends across
the central Gulf. 12z guidance is very consistent in this
convection building eastward into south FL and the Keys this
evening. Low-level moisture and instability will slowly increase
this afternoon prior to the arrival of storms, with sufficient
SBCAPE to pose a risk of surface-based storms across the SLGT risk
area. Deep layer shear values will promote the risk of
rotating/bowing storm structures capable of gusty/damaging winds or
perhaps a tornado or two. The period of greatest threat appears to
be from 03-09z tonight.
..Hart/Wendt.. 01/31/2020
$$